Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | TROY +150 APP -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | APP -3.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -4.1 (+8.1) | 150.1 (-22.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.3 (+5.3) | 149.0 (-21.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -3.4 (+7.4) | 147.5 (-19.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -3.6 (+7.6) | 148.4 (-20.4) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
| Jan 8, 2022 | TROY 68 – 53 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#198) | 5.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#276) | 1.34 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#255) | 1.36 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#265) | 0.560 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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