Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -3.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.3 (-8.3) | 130.4 (-2.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.4 (-9.4) | 128.6 (-0.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.2 (-8.2) | 130.3 (-2.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.3 (-8.3) | 131.0 (-3.0) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Jan 8, 2022 | TROY 68 – 53 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#169) | -1.1 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#130) | 0.56 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#137) | 0.72 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#92) | 0.516 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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