Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -325 APP +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +22 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -8.6 (-30.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-35.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -6.9 (-28.9) | 139.4 (-29.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -8.4 (-30.4) | 143.0 (-33.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -7.2 (-29.2) | 138.7 (-28.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -7.0 (-29.0) | 139.7 (-29.7) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
| Jan 8, 2022 | TROY 68 – 53 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#128) | -2.9 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#96) | -0.25 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#130) | -0.56 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#69) | 0.484 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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