Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -13.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -10.8 (-12.8) | 132.7 (+3.3) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -12.5 (-14.5) | 132.8 (+3.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -10.6 (-12.6) | 134.5 (+1.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -11.1 (-13.1) | 135.7 (+0.3) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | W&M 85 – 78 UNCW |
| Jan 23, 2026 | W&M 77 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 70 W&M |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 74 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#118) | -5.9 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#37) | -0.91 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#47) | -1.38 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#65) | 0.455 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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