Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +2 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -5.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-39.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -4.1 (+2.1) | 146.3 (-40.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -4.2 (+2.2) | 145.3 (-39.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -4.4 (+2.4) | 145.1 (-39.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -4.7 (+2.7) | 143.7 (-37.7) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | CIN 97 – 74 SMU |
| Mar 4, 2022 | SMU 76 – 71 CIN |
| Jan 7, 2022 | CIN 77 – 60 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | CIN 74 – 71 SMU |
| Jan 8, 2021 | CIN 76 – 69 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-9 | 16-3 |
| Away | 1-11 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#207) | 7.6 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#210) | 0.78 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#193) | 0.98 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#176) | 0.545 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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