Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | SMU -240 CIN +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -11.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -11.0 (-18.0) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -9.4 (-16.4) | 142.3 (+2.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -10.6 (-17.6) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -11.2 (-18.2) | 144.0 (+1.0) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | CIN 97 – 74 SMU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | CIN 54 – 52 SMU |
| Mar 4, 2022 | SMU 76 – 71 CIN |
| Jan 7, 2022 | CIN 77 – 60 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | CIN 74 – 71 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-6 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#41) | 2.9 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#24) | -0.21 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#26) | 0.22 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#38) | 0.484 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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