Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -6.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -6.7 (-1.7) | 141.5 (+5.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -6.5 (-1.5) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -6.9 (-1.9) | 139.4 (+7.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -6.7 (-1.7) | 139.2 (+7.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | CIN 97 – 74 SMU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | CIN 54 – 52 SMU |
| Jan 7, 2022 | CIN 77 – 60 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | CIN 74 – 71 SMU |
| Jan 8, 2021 | CIN 76 – 69 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#50) | 5.9 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#52) | 0.61 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#55) | 1.03 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#52) | 0.511 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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