SMU
Mustangs
71
–
74
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati
Bearcats
Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -200 CIN +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -7.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -5.0 (-8.0) | 144.2 (+0.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -4.7 (-7.7) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -6.1 (-9.1) | 144.6 (+0.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.6 (-8.6) | 144.7 (+0.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | CIN 97 – 74 SMU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | CIN 54 – 52 SMU |
| Mar 4, 2022 | SMU 76 – 71 CIN |
| Jan 7, 2022 | CIN 77 – 60 SMU |
| Jan 8, 2021 | CIN 76 – 69 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-6 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#51) | 2.7 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#46) | 0.86 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#51) | 0.98 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#64) | 0.534 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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