Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -900 SMU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +23 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -13.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -12.8 (+10.2) | 152.2 (+18.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -11.3 (+11.7) | 152.9 (+18.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -12.1 (+10.9) | 150.4 (+20.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -12.5 (+10.5) | 152.0 (+19.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2023 | CIN 54 – 52 SMU |
| Mar 4, 2022 | SMU 76 – 71 CIN |
| Jan 7, 2022 | CIN 77 – 60 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | CIN 74 – 71 SMU |
| Jan 8, 2021 | CIN 76 – 69 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#60) | -1.2 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#89) | -0.48 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#89) | -0.36 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#106) | 0.482 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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