I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · January 14, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -1.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money MORE +100 / SEMO +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual SEMO +5 177 Lost
Massey SEMO -2.7 (-2.3) — —
Massey Totals — 141.9 (+35.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 64% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 56% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SEMO -2.1 (-2.9) 147.7 (+29.3) 40% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SEMO -1.3 (-3.7) 146.7 (+30.3) 48% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SEMO -1.7 (-3.3) 144.8 (+32.2) 45% ✓
Baseline ML SEMO -2.1 (-2.9) 146.8 (+30.2) 44% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 MORE 66 – 61 SEMO
Feb 6, 2026 SEMO 82 – 70 MORE
Jan 10, 2026 MORE 71 – 69 SEMO
Feb 7, 2025 SEMO 80 – 51 MORE
Jan 11, 2025 MORE 67 – 56 SEMO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE SEMO
Overall 22-12 19-17
Conference 14-4 10-8
Home 14-2 9-4
Away 8-9 5-11
Neutral 0-1 5-2
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.2 77.0
Avg Pts Against 68.2 77.6
Massey -9.1 (#323) -2.4 (#224)
Bradley-Terry -0.71 (#249) -0.60 (#236)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.28 (#271) -0.72 (#227)
RPI 0.456 (#260) 0.477 (#219)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE SEMO
FG% 40.3% 42.9%
3PT% 31.5% 35.0%
REB / G 33.3 32.7
OREB / G 8.1 8.2
AST / TO 0.82 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.6% 50.3%
TOV% 20.7% 18.0%
ORB% 24.6% 22.9%
FT Rate 29.8% 21.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 14.5% 19.7%
DRB% 73.9% 71.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.7% 34.0%

Game Analysis

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