Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +210 USM -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +17 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -10.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -9.9 (-7.1) | 129.8 (+1.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -9.0 (-8.0) | 128.4 (+2.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -9.7 (-7.3) | 129.3 (+1.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -10.0 (-7.0) | 130.1 (+0.9) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | ARST 89 – 84 USM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | ARST 93 – 86 USM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARST 101 – 67 USM |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ARST 81 – 68 USM |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARST 78 – 71 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-8 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#307) | 6.3 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#293) | 1.45 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#299) | 1.72 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#325) | 0.588 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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