Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -163 ACU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -8.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -5.3 (+3.7) | 140.3 (-5.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -4.3 (+4.7) | 138.8 (-3.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -5.2 (+3.8) | 141.1 (-6.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -5.3 (+3.7) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#168) | -3.8 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#167) | -0.70 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#163) | -1.00 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#164) | 0.453 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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