Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -9.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.0 (+3.0) | 139.3 (+1.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -7.0 (+2.0) | 139.9 (+1.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.5 (+2.5) | 138.0 (+3.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.7 (+2.3) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSU 85 – 82 ILL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSU 79 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MSU 80 – 78 ILL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MSU 88 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ILL 71 – 68 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#19) | 8.2 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#40) | 2.26 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#39) | 2.65 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#62) | 0.611 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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