Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -120 ILL +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -2.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.2 (+2.2) | 158.2 (-0.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.4 (+0.6) | 159.0 (-1.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -0.5 (+1.5) | 156.0 (+2.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -0.6 (+1.4) | 156.1 (+1.9) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSU 85 – 82 ILL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSU 79 – 65 ILL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MSU 88 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ILL 71 – 68 MSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ILL 75 – 66 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#18) | 22.9 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#13) | 3.11 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.27 (#16) | 4.27 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#20) | 0.613 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 45.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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