Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -130 ILL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -0.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -1.0 (+2.0) | 141.7 (+25.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.4 (+1.6) | 144.3 (+22.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.1 (+0.9) | 142.2 (+24.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.5 (+0.5) | 142.9 (+24.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSU 79 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MSU 80 – 78 ILL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MSU 88 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ILL 71 – 68 MSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ILL 75 – 66 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#12) | 23.6 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#13) | 4.38 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.83 (#12) | 5.66 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#14) | 0.651 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 39.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 11.6% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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