Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -270 MSU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +14 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -6.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.7 (-19.7) | 156.9 (-12.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.7 (-19.7) | 155.8 (-11.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.0 (-20.0) | 155.0 (-11.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.2 (-20.2) | 155.5 (-11.5) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSU 85 – 82 ILL |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MSU 80 – 78 ILL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MSU 88 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ILL 71 – 68 MSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ILL 75 – 66 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#7) | 17.0 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#32) | 2.82 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#25) | 3.69 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#40) | 0.615 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 44.6 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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