Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -188 ILL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -2.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.4 (+5.6) | 143.2 (+24.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.1 (+5.9) | 140.8 (+27.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.0 (+6.0) | 142.5 (+25.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.6 (+6.4) | 143.8 (+24.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSU 85 – 82 ILL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSU 79 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MSU 80 – 78 ILL |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ILL 71 – 68 MSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ILL 75 – 66 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#18) | 16.6 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#58) | 2.49 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#37) | 3.16 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#60) | 0.618 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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