Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -163 MSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -6.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.3 (-3.3) | 147.2 (-8.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -6.1 (-3.1) | 149.2 (-10.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.0 (-3.0) | 147.5 (-8.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.7 (-3.7) | 148.5 (-9.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSU 85 – 82 ILL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSU 79 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MSU 80 – 78 ILL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MSU 88 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 14, 2023 | ILL 75 – 66 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#10) | 15.3 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#23) | 1.57 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#15) | 2.42 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#23) | 0.564 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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