Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -150 ALCN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -2.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.7 (-4.3) | 145.2 (+7.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -0.9 (-4.1) | 143.6 (+9.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.1 (-4.9) | 144.6 (+8.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -0.2 (-4.8) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TXSO 92 – 87 ALCN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXSO 72 – 71 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ALCN 82 – 79 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#298) | -6.2 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#340) | -0.50 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#344) | -0.27 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#313) | 0.488 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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