Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU -120 FDU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -3.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -0.4 (-7.6) | 146.5 (+21.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -1.4 (-9.4) | 144.9 (+23.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -0.1 (-8.1) | 145.2 (+22.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -0.7 (-8.7) | 145.6 (+22.4) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CCSU 63 – 57 FDU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | FDU 76 – 66 CCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | CCSU 76 – 72 FDU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CCSU 87 – 66 FDU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CCSU 71 – 60 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#315) | -7.7 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#353) | -1.19 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#350) | -1.63 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#351) | 0.432 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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