Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | FDU +200 CCSU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +11 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -2.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -3.5 (-7.5) | 137.1 (-6.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -3.7 (-7.3) | 136.1 (-5.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -3.6 (-7.4) | 136.9 (-5.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -3.7 (-7.3) | 138.7 (-7.7) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CCSU 63 – 57 FDU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | FDU 76 – 66 CCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | CCSU 76 – 72 FDU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CCSU 87 – 66 FDU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CCSU 71 – 62 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 14-2 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 12-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#313) | -2.6 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#314) | 0.17 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#312) | -0.08 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#321) | 0.511 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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