Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU -700 FDU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +21 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -11.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -10.7 (+10.3) | 135.0 (+18.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -10.1 (+10.9) | 137.3 (+15.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -11.3 (+9.7) | 134.5 (+18.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -10.2 (+10.8) | 133.6 (+19.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CCSU 63 – 57 FDU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | FDU 76 – 66 CCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | CCSU 76 – 72 FDU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CCSU 71 – 60 FDU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CCSU 71 – 62 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 12-3 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#180) | -9.7 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#150) | -1.58 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | -1.99 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#146) | 0.431 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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