Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CMU +188 BUF -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -1.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -0.5 (+9.5) | 145.9 (+19.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -1.0 (+8.0) | 144.1 (+20.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -0.8 (+8.2) | 145.0 (+20.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -1.0 (+8.0) | 145.4 (+19.6) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CMU 75 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CMU 73 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | BUF 75 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | BUF 76 – 64 CMU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BUF 63 – 35 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#270) | -3.2 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#326) | -0.39 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#321) | -0.58 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#344) | 0.484 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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