Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | CMU -1400 BUF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -15.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -12.4 (-8.4) | 148.4 (-6.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -12.1 (-8.1) | 147.9 (-5.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -12.8 (-8.8) | 149.6 (-7.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -13.6 (-9.6) | 148.6 (-6.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CMU 75 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | BUF 75 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | BUF 76 – 64 CMU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BUF 63 – 35 CMU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | CMU 87 – 78 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#190) | -14.2 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#253) | -1.96 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#240) | -2.74 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#232) | 0.416 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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