Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -800 CMU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +28 | 98 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -10.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-49.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -8.6 (+19.4) | 145.4 (-47.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -11.0 (+17.0) | 143.5 (-45.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -7.4 (+20.6) | 146.9 (-48.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -7.4 (+20.6) | 147.4 (-49.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CMU 75 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CMU 73 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | BUF 75 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | BUF 76 – 64 CMU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | CMU 87 – 78 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#212) | -8.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#213) | -1.47 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#220) | -1.89 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#210) | 0.427 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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