Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +220 CMU -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -6.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -6.8 (+12.8) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -6.9 (+12.9) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -6.1 (+12.1) | 141.9 (+2.1) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -6.6 (+12.6) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CMU 75 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CMU 73 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 3, 2024 | BUF 76 – 64 CMU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BUF 63 – 35 CMU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | CMU 87 – 78 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#346) | -2.8 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#314) | -0.81 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#323) | -0.85 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#302) | 0.483 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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