Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CMU -120 BUF +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | CMU -5.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -3.5 (-15.5) | 138.7 (+1.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -1.3 (-13.3) | 136.6 (+3.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -3.1 (-15.1) | 139.0 (+1.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -3.1 (-15.1) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CMU 75 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CMU 73 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | BUF 75 – 69 CMU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BUF 63 – 35 CMU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | CMU 87 – 78 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-3 | 2-13 |
| Away | 7-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#337) | -12.5 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#272) | -4.18 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#284) | -5.78 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#257) | 0.386 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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