Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +175 TXST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +3 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -3.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.6 (+6.6) | 130.9 (-11.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -4.2 (+7.2) | 127.2 (-8.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -2.7 (+5.7) | 130.2 (-11.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.4 (+6.4) | 131.2 (-12.2) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#314) | -0.8 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#283) | -0.02 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#267) | -0.12 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#282) | 0.478 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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