Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +2 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -6.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -6.0 (-4.0) | 152.8 (+11.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.8 (-1.8) | 150.3 (+13.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -5.6 (-3.6) | 153.4 (+10.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -5.4 (-3.4) | 153.5 (+10.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MIA 77 – 76 NCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MIA 72 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 68 MIA |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MIA 80 – 73 NCSU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | MIA 91 – 83 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#32) | 8.9 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#29) | 2.80 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#30) | 3.13 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#41) | 0.622 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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