Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -213 NCSU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -1.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.2 (+3.8) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -4.5 (+2.5) | 148.2 (+4.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.5 (+3.5) | 152.3 (+0.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.3 (+3.7) | 152.3 (+0.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MIA 77 – 76 NCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MIA 72 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 14, 2023 | NCSU 83 – 81 MIA |
| Dec 30, 2021 | MIA 91 – 83 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#66) | 10.4 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#19) | 1.04 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#19) | 1.59 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#52) | 0.550 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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