Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +8 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -7.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -6.6 (+1.4) | 152.9 (+21.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -4.9 (+3.1) | 151.8 (+22.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -6.7 (+1.3) | 151.4 (+22.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -7.1 (+0.9) | 151.2 (+22.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MIA 77 – 76 NCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MIA 72 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 14, 2023 | NCSU 83 – 81 MIA |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MIA 80 – 73 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-10 |
| Away | 10-2 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#120) | -0.1 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#73) | -0.18 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#82) | -0.15 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#75) | 0.467 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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