Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +115 NCSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -2.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -3.2 (+5.2) | 149.4 (-7.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -1.9 (+3.9) | 147.1 (-5.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -2.4 (+4.4) | 149.6 (-7.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.3 (+4.3) | 150.6 (-8.6) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MIA 77 – 76 NCSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 14, 2023 | NCSU 83 – 81 MIA |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MIA 80 – 73 NCSU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | MIA 91 – 83 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-10 | 12-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | 3.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#279) | 0.18 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#253) | 0.46 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#299) | 0.472 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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