Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -188 MIA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -0.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -1.5 (+4.5) | 152.5 (-10.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.5 (+3.5) | 149.2 (-7.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -1.6 (+4.4) | 149.3 (-7.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -1.5 (+4.5) | 150.7 (-8.7) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MIA 77 – 76 NCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MIA 72 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | NCSU 83 – 81 MIA |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MIA 80 – 73 NCSU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | MIA 91 – 83 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#84) | 10.2 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#69) | 1.72 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#72) | 2.10 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#115) | 0.567 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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