Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -270 MIA +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -5.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -5.5 (-6.5) | 158.7 (-5.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -4.3 (-5.3) | 156.3 (-3.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -5.4 (-6.4) | 155.2 (-2.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -5.2 (-6.2) | 158.6 (-5.6) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | MIA 72 – 70 NCSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 14, 2023 | NCSU 83 – 81 MIA |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MIA 80 – 73 NCSU |
| Dec 30, 2021 | MIA 91 – 83 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#25) | 14.8 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#34) | 2.39 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#39) | 3.35 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#32) | 0.564 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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