Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +600 UNC -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +21 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -16.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -13.9 (-7.1) | 148.4 (-9.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -14.6 (-6.4) | 149.2 (-10.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -14.7 (-6.3) | 149.7 (-10.7) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -13.5 (-7.5) | 147.9 (-8.9) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | UNC 77 – 74 LOU |
| Jan 1, 2025 | LOU 83 – 70 UNC |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNC 86 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | UNC 70 – 63 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2022 | UNC 90 – 83 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-9 |
| Home | 4-13 | 12-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#328) | 11.3 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#352) | 2.03 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#325) | 2.71 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#308) | 0.618 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.