Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | UNC +160 LOU -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -2.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -0.0 (+3.0) | 156.0 (-5.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.7 (+1.3) | 160.2 (-9.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -0.2 (+3.2) | 153.3 (-2.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.3 (+2.7) | 157.1 (-6.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2025 | LOU 83 – 70 UNC |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNC 86 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UNC 80 – 59 LOU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | UNC 70 – 63 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2022 | UNC 90 – 83 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#28) | 21.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#20) | 2.90 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#26) | 3.77 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#8) | 0.603 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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