Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +140 UNC -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +7 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -3.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.7 (-4.3) | 144.8 (+28.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.9 (-4.1) | 143.9 (+29.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.4 (-4.6) | 145.5 (+27.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.9 (-5.1) | 145.0 (+28.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | UNC 77 – 74 LOU |
| Jan 1, 2025 | LOU 83 – 70 UNC |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNC 86 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UNC 80 – 59 LOU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | UNC 70 – 63 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | 10.3 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#128) | 1.88 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#127) | 2.34 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#116) | 0.605 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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