Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -120 UNC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +13 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -1.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -2.9 (+10.1) | 161.4 (-8.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LOU -1.8 (+11.2) | 160.2 (-7.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LOU -2.8 (+10.2) | 159.3 (-6.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.2 (+10.8) | 161.4 (-8.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | UNC 77 – 74 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNC 86 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UNC 80 – 59 LOU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | UNC 70 – 63 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2022 | UNC 90 – 83 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#52) | 13.8 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#48) | 2.38 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#44) | 3.12 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#32) | 0.629 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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