Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -8000 LOU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -25.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -20.0 (-4.0) | 155.1 (+0.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -21.3 (-5.3) | 156.5 (-0.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -21.2 (-5.2) | 156.1 (-0.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -22.2 (-6.2) | 154.2 (+1.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | UNC 77 – 74 LOU |
| Jan 1, 2025 | LOU 83 – 70 UNC |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UNC 80 – 59 LOU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | UNC 70 – 63 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2022 | UNC 90 – 83 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-11 |
| Away | 8-2 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#7) | -2.8 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#8) | -1.11 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#4) | -1.20 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#7) | 0.441 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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