Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -550 LOU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -9.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -9.6 (-2.6) | 150.1 (-17.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.0 (-3.0) | 150.3 (-17.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.0 (-4.0) | 150.6 (-17.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.3 (-3.3) | 150.4 (-17.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | UNC 77 – 74 LOU |
| Jan 1, 2025 | LOU 83 – 70 UNC |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNC 86 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | UNC 80 – 59 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2022 | UNC 90 – 83 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#47) | 3.3 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#44) | 0.53 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#47) | 0.65 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#39) | 0.515 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.