Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -15.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.4 (+2.6) | 132.8 (-4.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -13.9 (+4.1) | 133.6 (-5.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -13.8 (+4.2) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -13.9 (+4.1) | 133.5 (-5.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PUR 74 – 58 NEB |
| Feb 11, 2026 | PUR 80 – 77 NEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PUR 104 – 68 NEB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEB 88 – 72 PUR |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PUR 65 – 62 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#7) | 4.3 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#2) | 1.11 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.89 (#1) | 1.41 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#5) | 0.552 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 11.9% |
Game Analysis
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