Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NEB +350 PUR -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -6.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.3 (+2.3) | 137.5 (-10.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.9 (+3.9) | 137.1 (-10.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.4 (+1.4) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.4 (+1.4) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PUR 74 – 58 NEB |
| Feb 11, 2026 | PUR 80 – 77 NEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PUR 104 – 68 NEB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEB 88 – 72 PUR |
| Jan 14, 2023 | PUR 73 – 55 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#77) | 17.7 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#84) | 4.35 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#73) | 6.48 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#89) | 0.715 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.6% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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