Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -400 NEB +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +36 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -6.4 (+29.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.9 (+30.1) | 139.3 (+32.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.7 (+29.3) | 139.8 (+32.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.1 (+29.9) | 139.9 (+32.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -6.2 (+29.8) | 139.8 (+32.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PUR 74 – 58 NEB |
| Feb 11, 2026 | PUR 80 – 77 NEB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEB 88 – 72 PUR |
| Jan 14, 2023 | PUR 73 – 55 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PUR 65 – 62 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#23) | 13.3 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#19) | 2.76 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#22) | 3.67 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.675 (#5) | 0.638 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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