Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NEB -142 PUR +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -0.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -3.7 (-6.7) | 142.1 (+14.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -2.8 (-5.8) | 142.8 (+14.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -4.0 (-7.0) | 141.7 (+15.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -3.9 (-6.9) | 142.2 (+14.8) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PUR 74 – 58 NEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PUR 104 – 68 NEB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEB 88 – 72 PUR |
| Jan 14, 2023 | PUR 73 – 55 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PUR 65 – 62 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#15) | 21.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.53 (#5) | 3.59 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.56 (#5) | 4.67 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#12) | 0.642 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.07 | 2.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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