Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NEB +160 PUR -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +16 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -2.6 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.2 (-14.8) | 140.8 (-8.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.5 (-13.5) | 140.4 (-8.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -0.5 (-15.5) | 140.8 (-8.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -0.5 (-15.5) | 142.0 (-10.0) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | PUR 80 – 77 NEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PUR 104 – 68 NEB |
| Jan 10, 2024 | NEB 88 – 72 PUR |
| Jan 14, 2023 | PUR 73 – 55 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PUR 65 – 62 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#17) | 21.4 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#11) | 3.22 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.30 (#12) | 4.17 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#20) | 0.615 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 2.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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