Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | NEB +278 PUR -355 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +16 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.4 (+26.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.6 (+22.6) | 147.8 (+12.2) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.4 (+24.4) | 146.8 (+13.2) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.5 (+22.5) | 147.1 (+12.9) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.5 (+23.5) | 146.3 (+13.7) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PUR 74 – 58 NEB |
| Feb 11, 2026 | PUR 80 – 77 NEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PUR 104 – 68 NEB |
| Jan 14, 2023 | PUR 73 – 55 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2022 | PUR 65 – 62 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 18-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#60) | 22.8 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#40) | 4.14 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#47) | 5.39 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#50) | 0.708 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.