Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +31 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -4.9 (+26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.8 (+27.2) | 143.7 (-2.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -3.0 (+28.0) | 142.2 (-1.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -2.9 (+28.1) | 145.2 (-4.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -2.7 (+28.3) | 145.7 (-4.7) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JOES 75 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | JOES 85 – 64 LUC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LUC 58 – 55 JOES |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JOES 93 – 57 LUC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | LUC 64 – 59 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#248) | -5.2 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#288) | -0.98 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#290) | -1.17 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#256) | 0.444 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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