Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -230 LUC +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +36 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -7.1 (+28.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -6.1 (+29.9) | 144.0 (+6.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -5.8 (+30.2) | 143.7 (+6.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -6.1 (+29.9) | 141.8 (+8.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -6.2 (+29.8) | 142.9 (+7.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JOES 75 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | JOES 85 – 64 LUC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LUC 58 – 55 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | LUC 64 – 59 JOES |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LUC 78 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-6 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#105) | 0.7 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#145) | 0.38 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#155) | 0.61 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#141) | 0.502 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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