Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -175 JOES +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -2.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -3.3 (+1.7) | 146.4 (-23.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -0.9 (+4.1) | 147.1 (-24.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.4 (+1.6) | 145.7 (-22.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -3.2 (+1.8) | 146.7 (-23.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JOES 75 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | JOES 85 – 64 LUC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LUC 58 – 55 JOES |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JOES 93 – 57 LUC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LUC 78 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#108) | 5.5 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#75) | 0.93 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#92) | 1.07 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#57) | 0.544 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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