Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -275 LUC +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -10.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -8.9 (-11.9) | 142.3 (+10.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -8.2 (-11.2) | 139.7 (+13.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -8.1 (-11.1) | 140.1 (+12.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -8.9 (-11.9) | 142.6 (+10.4) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JOES 75 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | JOES 85 – 64 LUC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LUC 58 – 55 JOES |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JOES 93 – 57 LUC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | LUC 64 – 59 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#64) | 2.0 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#98) | 0.38 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#85) | 0.48 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#117) | 0.514 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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